Tesla published a Master Plan Part 3 and they talk about sales of Cybertruck class vehicles with Model S/X reaching 9 million per year and a total global fleet of 149 million. Model S/X are about 50% of their category. Electric large Sedans and SUVs will cap out at about a global fleet of about 65 million. The Cybertruck will take part of the SUV market and can dominate the electric pickup truck market.
I have made the case that Cybertruck will dominate the work truck market and will be the dominant electric truck. This will be due to Tesla applying the Tesla Semi motor and powertrain to enable vastly more efficient larger electric vehicles.
Tesla projects electric commercial and vans to end up reaching be 10 million per year.
Tesla is continuing to improve its motors with hairpin motors and new better batteries.
Dominating trucks and vans will take making a large amount of batteries. 19 million vehicles (10M vans and 9M trucks) each year with 100 kWh batteries is 1.9 TWh per year. 10% market share electric vans and truck market share would take 190 GWh/year. Tesla is leading the world with the use of most batteries.
Tesla leading the scaling of batteries and the technology for efficient and powerful heavy electric trucks could lead to the level of domination that Tesla has in the USA electric car market. This is 60-70% market share. Tesla should be the one who has 1 TWh/year to make 5 million Cybertrucks per year and 5 million Cybervans per year.
Tesla is projecting 3 million heavy (Semi and large) trucks per year. They will need 2.1 TWh/year of batteries. If Tesla dominates these electric heavy trucks with 80+% market share, then they would need about 1.6 TWh/Year of batteries for 2.4 Million heavy trucks.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Have we all written off solid-state batteries? Quantum dots? They seem to have disappeared.
Is there any concern about South Korean battery manufacturers and Kia/Hyundai competition? What about Chinese EVs being exported to rest of world?
I am long a couple of thousand shares of Tesla (at least until 2028), mainly because of Megapack solving renewable intermittency and load-balancing for the grid, plus for charging needs as we move to massive electrification.
However, I think a sober view takes into account the very real competition coming from China and South Korea.
Quietly killed the Roadster, then, have they?
not necessarily. It’s such a tiny niche product that it plays no role in the overall mission outlined in master plan part 3.