Vietnam and Some Other Asian Countries Avoided 7% COVID GDP Hit

The IMF now expects Vietnam to have 2.4% GDP growth in 2020 and 6.4% in 2021 while the world will average -4.4% GDP in 2020 and could bounce back 5% in 2021. The world would normally see 3-4% GDP growth in each year. 2020-2021 will the world miss the 8% GDP expected over the two years to end up flat.

China is expecting 2.1% GDP growth in 2020 and 8.4% in 2021.

Taiwan’s GDP is expected to grow 1.8 percent in 2020 and 4.2 percent in 2021.

Indonesia is expecting -1.5% GDP growth in 2020 and 3% growth in 2021.

South Korea is expecting -1% GDP growth in 2020 and 3.1% in 2021.

Although Thailand also had very few COVID cases their tourism dependent economy took large hit. Thailand is expected to have -7.7% GDP growth in 2020 and 4% in 2021.

Malaysia is expecting -4.5% GDP growth in 2020 and 6.5-7.5% in 2021.

There are a wide range of forecasts for India. India is looking at -10% to -12% GDP growth in 2020 and a possible strong recovery in 2021 at 7-10%. India has had some of the highest national levels of COVID cases.

If the projections hold, China will gain 10% over 2020 and 2021 compared to India and the rest of the world.
ASEAN and South Korea GDP will gain 2-9% versus India and the rest of the world.

SOURCES- IMF, Reuters, Worldometers
Written By Brian Wang,

14 thoughts on “Vietnam and Some Other Asian Countries Avoided 7% COVID GDP Hit”

  1. I never meant to imply that India was perfect and the drift towards a Hindu theocracy is certainly very negative.
    "indifference to the suffering and death of disposable people." This assumes that China has somehow the moral high ground in that aspect, which is hasn't from all that I can see. West European standards do not apply to either country.

  2. How democratic can a country be when "cow slaughter" is a crime. India is now a religious autocracy, the land where the lives of cows are more valued than people. There's even increasing "cow vigilantism" in Hindu stronghold states like Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, and Maharastra where Muslims have been lynched for allegedly consuming beef.
    You may see freedom but there is only indifference to the suffering and death of disposable people.

  3. You are not going to get heatstroke in an air conditioned grocery, restaurant or the hair cutters.
    As I said, just a head version where people will get hot.
    Even a cooling system built in is not far fetched. The suit can be augmented with compressed air. Compressed air is cool when decompressed.
    I am using real N95 masks correctly…I have no doubt I would prefer that suit.
    I think we could mass produce the suits for less than $50 not counting extra batteries. If you are using disposable masks you have probably already gone through $50.
    And the reality is that nothing else is going to work allowing business to stay open and defeat the disease at the same time. People will not wear the masks correctly. I have yet to see an obese woman wearing an N95 correctly.
    Currently, most of the masks are only dealing with spray. Very few are dealing with airborne virus. And the ones designed to, are not being worn correctly.

  4. India is paying the price for having a democracy and being a relatively free country. I haven't heard or read anything about people who were nailed up in their houses and had their freedoms severly restricted, like it has been done in diktatorial China.

  5. That suit would have to include an air conditioner to not have people collapsing from heat stroke.
    No way would it be more comfortable than the standard N95 type masks that would be a tiny fraction of the cost.

  6. They are not "scared" to wear them. They just don't want to: moron bravado, political BS, selfishness, denial, discomfort, or already had it. The discomfort is real. That is why we need the suits instead. A legit mask worn properly can be unpleasant after just a half hour. The suit we design should be comfortable for upwards of 12 hours. The battery should probably be on the hip or the thigh, and quick and easy to change and put on the charger.
    No way to cheat. Not difficult to breathe in. 100% effective, rather than 70% or something. And everyone in the public would not get them just the workers that work close to other workers or work with many customers.
    These suits are powered, constantly blowing clean air into the suit. The one I linked to only blows air for an hour, but that is with a very serious filter for chemicals. If it was just a filter for virus particles and larger, there would be less resistance and it could works for several hours.
    It may be more dramatic looking, but I think it is actually less hassle. You can see peoples' faces and hear them more clearly. And I don't think gloves are necessary. Just wash your hands.

  7. Hazmat suits?

    People are scared to wear thin, lightweight, face masks. People are claiming they can't breathe and it feels like they are being strangled.

    (Can you imagine these people 100 years ago when it was socially mandatory to wear a tie? Or a hat? Or whatever women wore that was equally constraining.)

    And those people who DO wear a mask, half of them don't understand why. So they don't cover their nose or they only cover their chin, and expect that the mask will confer an aura of protectiveness over them without needing to actually filter air.

  8. Maybe bars can stay open too but with a low drink limit, plexiglass, and air filtration.
    Of course, the next time things don't have to come to this. I agree that government response matters. We can stop air travel or shut down the boarders if it starts in some other country, and get serious about tracing and testing people who have recently come from those locations. There is no reason something has to get this out of hand.
    The reason this hit us fast and hard was that wealth makes it easy to travel all over the World. The States hit first were States that have a lot of people that travel extensively. Asians were probably less effected because previous infections, perhaps thousand years ago even, weeding out many of the vulnerable would-be ancestors. Islands are easier to control. In Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore it is much easier to control travel. Latin America was hit hard because they have a normally closer social distance when talking and such. The French, Italians and Spanish have similar customs…and the kissing stuff.
    The British just decided to ignore it and take it on the chin. Smaller homes may also contribute to the spread, making it very difficult to avoid the spread to family members even with an abundance of caution.
    Tradition of hygiene I am not so sure. Hygiene is big in the Middle East and they were pummeled. I don't see any correlation here:

  9. Americans will do a lot to keep thir jobs, because they don't want to risk losing their housing. If we prepared for the next one by having full hazmat suits like this one:
    for every worker in close contact with other workers or customers, issued in these emergencies, very little has to close down. It is the closing down that is impacting the economy. The suits don't need the extreme filtration for chemicals and such, they don't need the highly sealed zippers, the person wearing them needs to be able to take it off and on themselves and reasonably quickly, so they can easily use the restroom. A similar system but just for the head is possible for workers that have to exercise more vigorously or work in hot weather.
    And you have to have sizable fines and the willingness to enforce. Costumers can have N95 or these other options. In restaurants they can take off their masks if they are behind plexiglass. And restaurants should have a rapid air filtration system. You just wheel the thing into the center of the room and it filters all the air in the room every 30 seconds.
    Bars still probably have to close. Everything else seems viable.
    But the main thing we need is a system to develop vacines in less than a month with "human challenge". A group simular to the Reserves. Healthy volunteers get a small check every month they are part of the program. 3 year unbreakable contract.

  10. What a mess India is. Gap with China already was/is huge, and now we have 2% growth for China and -10% or more decline for India. GDP per capita gap could grow in 2021 from 5 times larger for China to 6 times larger. If India do not invent Artificial Super Intelligence first, I do not see how they could close the gap. The gap is increasing each year so far.

    To be clear, I wish India(and every other country all the best and becoming developed ASAP), but so far… data speaks for itself, very poor leadership, management.

  11. You're probably right, idiots in America will need government size 12s on their necks to beat outbreaks in future.

  12. I think this virus wasn't so bad in some countries, because of several factors.

    A proper, rational government response is a big one, of course. A population with trust in authorities and following the lockdown rules is another.

    Bud I'd add there's a pre-existent cultural/behavioral element there, besides of economics.

    Nations seem to have very different attitudes towards hygiene, facemask usage and social interaction, or abilities to have lockdonws.

    In many places (in the Americas, not just USA), masks are often seen as an oppressive anti-social measure, while in others, particularly in Far East countries, they were a part of life even before the pandemic.

    Many Latin American countries also have subsistence economies, where people have to work or trade something on a daily basis in order to survive. These countries can't afford long term lockdowns, or they would have starving crowds and riots.

    My point is, people refusing to distance or protect themselves would still happen in these places, even with the most prepared and rational governments.

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