Over 250000 SpaceX Starlink Terminals

Elon Musk tweeted that there are over 250,000 Starlink Terminals which means that number of provisioned users.

In August, 2021, SpaceX had connected over 90,000 Starlink customers and was adding 20,000 users per month. The growth rate was about 30% per month. SpaceX added 160,000 users in six months. This is about 26,000 users per month.

SpaceX had over half a million orders/deposits globally. Elon Musk says SpaceX could add that many users by summer 2022. In the next three months, SpaceX could add 80,000 users per month.

SpaceX is charging $99/month for beta users. SpaceX will be making about $50 million per month in the summer of 2022. In February, SpaceX introduced Starlink Premium for $500 per month. It offers speeds between 150 and 500Mbps with 20 to 40 milliseconds of latency, up from 50 to 250Mbps with the same latency. Upload speeds are up from 10 to 20Mbps on the standard plan to 20 to 40Mbps on Premium. The doubled performance costs five times more. There are also guarantees of preferential service. If there is congested traffic then Premium customers will get service.

SpaceX should have over one million users and fifty thousand Premium customers by the end of 2022. This would be about $1.4 to 1.5 billion per year in revenue.

Starlink has the lowest latency of any communication system over long distances (over 3000 miles). This lower latency is a result of physics that light travels faster in a vacuum than in glass.

In 2017, SpaceX had an internal plan for $30 billion in internet service revenue by 2025 with operating profit margins in excess of 60%. This would be for a complete 12,000 satellite configuration. This would mean 25 global million users at $99 per month. The combined bandwidth of all these satellites won’t support more than 2.8 million users utilizing the service at advertised minimum rates of 100 megabits per second (Mbps) of download speed. The average U.S. broadband subscriber uses 600 GB – 700 GB of data per month by the end of 2021. This is about 15 minutes of full high-speed 100 Mbps data usage.

Given 12,000 satellites, the US will have access to 1.96%*12,000 = 235 satellites at any given time. Bandwidth per Starlink satellite is about 20-80 gbps. The US will have access to 235 * 50 gbps = 12 tbps

There are 19 million people in the US that lack access to broadband, and several million more that barely meet the broadband definition. There is typically a 20 to 1 to 50 to 1 aggregation rate. This means that companies like Comcast can oversubscribe with the knowledge that most people are not using the system at any one time and are not using the full bandwidth at any time.

20X multiple for the aggregated bandwidth.

240 aggregated tbps / 100 mbps = 2.4 million users in the USA.

50X multiple for the aggregated bandwidth.
600 aggregated tbps / 100 mbps = 6 million users in the USA.

SpaceX should have all 12000 satellites deployed by the end of 2023 or in 2024.

Generation two satellites will be five times bigger and have more bandwidth and there will be 30,000 satellites. This will be about 12 times the capacity of the generation 1. This would be able to generate about $360 billion in global revenue.

SOURCES- Elon Musk, SpaceX, Starlink, Twitter
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com