Musk-Haters Make Falsifiable Claims

24 thoughts on “Musk-Haters Make Falsifiable Claims”

1. CSS blocked me on twitter so he won’t see my reply there.

   He thinks if Starlink splits from SpaceX, it will have to charge full-retail for launch. This is demonstrably false. SpaceX can charge a nickel if it so-desires. Musk can give me free rids in Dragon if he so-desires. SpaceX will still be a privately-held, Musk-controlled corporation after the IPO, Starlink will be private. His Powerwall example is flawed because it is being sold by a publicly-traded company (Tesla) to SpaceX. His example is 180 degrees ass-backwards.

   CSS will block you when he gets cornered with facts.

   • Of course, CSS is a whiny baby. His videos are about how he cannot solve problems and has incomplete research. He artificially constrains problems and creates phantom problems. Many of his constraints are not real. Obvious things, like sending systems unmanned first or bringing more ships. When he tries to work out costs, he gets them wrong.

     • “whiny baby”
       but, why?
       Could he generate other sources for income or with help being a more scientific source for research and funded therefore or is cSs ‘ego’ cornered?
       Does society provide support on research work (beside advertising or follower reputation capacities?)?
       Would it be recommendable to CsS increasing his/her level of education, being more reputable?

     • “getting approval in an echo chamber”
       that’s a risk for all of us without constructive criticism and thinking out of the/our boxes(?)

       (if big car companies seriously getting into EV production, they (all) will be a strong force of competition on lowering prices for cars, with batteries available, and not all customers will want/need FSD or even autopilots on e.g. Indian rural or Thailands Bangkok city roads, e.g. ‘www.quora.com/How-bad-is-the-traffic-in-Bangkok’ ‘qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-d940b2e941766d157efef67a34bcea66-lq’)

       thanks for attendance/mindfulness

   • Correction: SpaceX will be privately-held still and Starlink will become publicly-traded.

2. Commonsense skeptic, thunderfoot and others do not make falsifiable claims: they run the math abd is math that disproves musk’s claims. Starlink is a mind boggling expensive way to set up satellite communucations and will have enormous running costs due to low altitude satellite deorbiting. Tesla makes nice cars but fsd does not exist. Solar roofs was a scam as fundamentally is the boring company/vegas hyperloop. Cybertruck simply does not exist as product and tesla semi does not have goid performance (otherwise they will have been advertised) nor do they have the famous convoy tecnology promoted as mature and ready 5 years ago. Spaceship launch was a catastrophe in terms of preplanning, launch safety, and launch abort systems, Twitter is sinking and so on… Musk popmoted innovation? Sure. Musk claims have been demonstrably proven wrong or, worse, completely false. Also sure. Attacking those who point out musk lies and the impossibility of many of his outlandish claims is childish.

   • Commonsense skeptic ranted at me in a DM — Cyber truck will flop.
     Starship will be shitcanned.
     Tesla will die from a thousand cuts.
     Starlink never hits profitability.

     Those are falsefiable statements. He made them to me. I have proof of his DM. He said it and I have the receipts.

     Thunderfoot has a video stating that Tesla will go bankrupt by 2027.

     So do not give me their BS where they can toss tomatoes and then go run and hide behind some cowardly denials. The statements have been made and they will be wrong.

     Just as your statements are wrong.

     • Ok.
       1) in multiple occasions over the years Musk stated that fsd could do (at the current time or within a year) tasks that it cannot do now. Yes or no?
       2) statements of point 1) were done not only in pr stunts but also in meeting with investors. Yes or no?
       3) tesla solar roof was based on a product that did not exist/work at the time. Yes or no?
       4) Vegas hyperloop is not even remotely close to the electric sled/pods on which one would load their cars and travel at 150 mph. Yes or no?
       5) the issue of starship launch demonstrate that is not pissible to have a hub for point to point travel because you will need exclusion zones of several miles around every launch tower and to substitute airtraffic you will need launching at the same rate of big airports (a flight taking off every few minutes) this will require spaceports the size of counties and it is not clear how people will get there while other rockets are taking of.
       6) spaceship launch was a failure. Despite the fanfare and the show the vessel is not even remotely ready nor failsafe (and i do not even consider proper safety at the moment) .
       7) the silence on tesla semi speaks volumes. If it performed well we would have known and according to musk statements tesla semi already years ago would have been cheaper than rail with the convoy tech, a technology in his own word “we can do now”.
       8) starlink low orbit satellites require costant replacement increasing the costs. Furthermore you need an oversized network as 80% of earth surface is water and population on land is not uniform. You spend a lot and at any given moment to not use most of your network. Where the population IS dense you have lower bandwidth as all the demand is spread on few satellites. Furthermore latency is and will NOT be constant, for applications as trading low latency is good, but uneven latency is not, streaming and asynchronous communication as twitter (or even customer payment) do not care about 500ms latency or even few seconds (which us more than the latency from geosynchronous satellites).

       Please let me know what is bs in my statements above and I will be happy to clarify.

       • 1.
         GM laid out a vision of self driving cars in 2017. GM said they would have a million EVs. GM said they would get self driving car rides below $1 per mile.
         https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous/gm-plans-large-scale-launch-of-self-driving-cars-in-u-s-cities-in-2019-idUSKBN1DU2H0
         Waymo talked about adding 62000 cars
         https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-waymo/waymo-to-get-more-than-60000-cars-from-fiat-chrysler-for-robotaxis-idUSKCN1IW2BC
         Ford and VW talked about Argo AI and put in billions before Argo AI went bankrupt.
         Ford driver assist system is called co-pilot 360
         https://www.ford.com/technology/driver-assist-technology/
         Businesses and CEO say things.
         Products and services are sold with names. Products and services come with disclaimers and fine print.

         Tesla Full self-driving beta for city streets to roughly 400,000 customers in North America. FSD is bought by about 10% of buyers in North America. Autopilot is sold to about 20-40% of Tesla buyers globally. Tesla has made $5-10 billion on Autopilot and FSD.

         Tesla is selling solar roofs and has about 100 partner installers. 1000 or so installed up to the end of 2022.
         GM talked about selling 30 different EV models at a future date.

         Vegas was alway a loop (never a hyperloop). and plans changed. Businesses pivot. Plans change. Definitions of business pivot.
         https://pursuitlending.com/resources/whats-a-business-pivot/

         The expansion, approved by Clark County, Nevada commissioners, will expand the network by 25 miles, allowing for 18 new stations that extend the tunnel network out from the Las Vegas Strip corridor.

         TechCrunch recently reported on the proposed expansion, which would increase the underground transport system to 65 miles of tunnels underneath Sin City designed to help people reach more casinos, retail zones, the University of Nevada Las Vegas campus and residential areas.

         The system was originally planned to feature 29 miles of tunnels with 51 stations. The Vegas Loop’s current footprint is about 2.2 miles, and it includes five stops including four around the Las Vegas Convention Center and Resorts World. Westgate and Encore are currently under construction. The company said it just surpassed 1 million total passengers, and that the peak in one day was more than 32,000 passengers.
         https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/03/musks-the-boring-company-to-expand-vegas-loop-to-18-new-stations/
         https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23712953-23-0126_plan_67801061_1

         Point to point travel will be with Starship only. The booster stage is not needed. Starship only will have 25% of the power. The regular cement withstood 50% of super heavy power.

         Point to point travel will be with air cargo first for many years. We will see what happens as it develops.

         Starship is still being tested. Rockets have to be tested. SLS had a test.

         Pepsi is happy with their Semi trucks.

         September 2023 there will be third party testing with public reports on Semi and other electric trucks.
         https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/05/three-weeks-of-data-measurements-and-testing-on-pepsi-tesla-semis-at-september-2023-event.html

         Nevada factory is getting Semi mass manufacturing set up.

         I am aware of Starlink distribution. The lower percentage of satellites in active usage means more capacity can be sold to mobile users and other future customers in Europe, Asia etc…
         Currently unused satellites will be able to provide backhaul or other services.
         https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/06/real-time-view-of-starlink-satellites.html
         https://satellitemap.space/

         Non-metro customers is still a large market of hundreds of millions of people globally. There can be metro customers but only up to the density limitations.
         There is the low bandwidth, text and voice services coming.
         SpaceX launched 4600 satellites to have about 3700 active currently, but 500 more are moving into position. Only 350 or so were de-orbited.

         Some services like mass transit, intentionally are designed with a lot of unused capacity. It is part of the plan.

         In May Starlink announced 1.5 million customers. Likely about 1.8 million customers now.
         https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/05/spacex-starlink-has-over-1-5-million-customers.html

         With premium services, on the order of $5-6 billion per year in annualized revenue. $1.5-2 billion in launch costs so far and $1.5 billion or so in satellite costs.
         Starlink operating profitability but need to cover other fixed costs. Starlink should add over 1 million customers by the end of the year. Amount dependent upon new dish factory ramp.

         STARLINK ROAM
         Unlimited high-speed, low-latency internet on an as-needed basis all over the world. Starting at $150/mo and a one-time hardware cost of $599.

         STARLINK MOBILITY
         High speed global internet, up to 220 Mbps download, for critical in-motion applications. Starting at $250/mo with a one-time hardware fee of $2,500. Try for 30 days with a guaranteed full refund on hardware.

         Tesla has 300k mobile customers.

         Starlink business
         High-speed, low-latency broadband internet to businesses across the globe, even in the most rural and remote locations. Starting at $250/mo with a one-time hardware cost of $2,500.

         Customer satisfaction is at an all-time high for broadband service provider Starlink, new rankings prove. People in non-metro regions or remote areas felt that despite it being slower than some other offerings, people turn to it for being reliable. It is fast enough for happy customers.
         https://www.digitalinformationworld.com/2023/05/starlink-tops-customer-satisfaction.html

         T-Mobile US and SpaceX are partnering to add satellite cellular service capability to Starlink satellites. It will provide dead-zone cell phone coverage across the US using existing midband PCS spectrum that T-Mobile owns. Cell coverage will begin with messaging and expand to include voice and limited data services later, with testing to begin in 2023. New Zealand and Canada cellphone company partners.

3. Everybody watched the mini-sub story as it unfolded. Starship is the same way, no way this ship is safe for people to blast off and return on this method. One missed factor or event will lead to death. Sorry Elon you over shot. Best Elon can do is keep this cargo only and use the current method of getting astronauts into space.

   • IF a lot of cargo only Starships get to orbit successfully THEN it can be trusted for launching people. Just like the Falcon series of rockets.
     If OceanGate had done a lot of unmanned runs first they could have had their failures without killing anyone. Following the advice of the 50 year old engineers would have saved some failures too.

     • No way would I depend on that system. Simple event or miscalculation leads to mass death and failure. UNSAFE for human travel. Think Columbia or Challenger was bad, wait for this to fail. No one will say it, but over-engineering can lead to project failures if you lie to yourself to many times. They said that about the Space Shuttle also.

   • Corey, if an aircraft fails to land, everyone dies.

     Please come up with an argument that doesn’t apply to something already well accepted & safe.

     The only difference between starship, correction, ANY new vehicle’s reliability and other accepted transport is it’s record over time.

     Until a number of non test flights have occurred, nothing has been proven except that you’re talking out of your ass.

4. ChatGPT’s opinion (short version) on “Youtuber Common Sense Skeptic”, intention and each point (?)

5. He’s way off base about SpaceX. At some point Tesla will sell 50K CT’s in a 12 month period, but I agree it is overhyped like FSD, solar roofs, robot, semi. But lets not forget Tesla is the number one EV company in the world,80 is high for forward PE, but they are world leaders.

   • BYD is number one EV company.

   • It was always obvious that Tesla would not be able to maintain high profit margins in a low margin industry like cars for all future. Now they are falling behind on self-driving and having to cut margins to deal with e.g. BYD. They are not world leaders either on tech or sales anymore and even if they were a PEG-ratio of 1-2 (~PE of 20-40) is more reasonable for a car manufacturer that is growing 20% per year. I’d lean more towards 1 since it is a car company with practically non-existent moat to other competitors and it is currently starting to lose out to BYD.

     • Tesla has slightly increased its unit sales lead of pure BEVs against BYD.
       https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/06/tesla-still-battery-electric-vehicle-leader.html

6. Starlink has a higher orbit planned for laser backbone sats.

7. 1a. Starlink will be profitable. Proof that Starlink will be profitable would be that Bezos is trying desperately to do the same thing and will even use ULA launches to do it.
   1b. Starlink can stay in its current orbits and this is a selling point (lower latency, less space debris).
   2a. Starship will become operational. If it puts cargo in to LEO then it is operational.
   2b. Starship demonstrating in orbit refueling and landing on the moon is a probably even odds. Its a big lift but in orbit refueling is a game changer.
   4. Tesla bankrupt in 2027? No way.

   • 3. 50k cybertrucks a year will definitely happen. Compare cybertruck cost to Rivian cost.

     • Let’s see if they actually deliver on that cost first.

   • I would not lay 50 50 against SpaceX to land on the Moon, given enough time. Just landing somewhat softly cargo only would be HUGE!!
     Think of all the stuff we could send.
     If we could just get Bezos up to speed I’d favor cancelling Artemis. I see SpaceX landing softly on the Moon with passengers and gear. They will eventually be able to get 02,as a by product of metal refining, and just refueling with that, makes it many times easier to return to Earth orbit.Or Earth.

     • 50/50 in context of Artemis 3 timeline. Odds on SpaceX landing on the moon by end of the decade are 100%

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