US COVID Daily Deaths Tracking Towards More Pessimistic Models

This is an update on the projection that the US will reach 500,000 cumulative COVID deaths according to the Worldometer tracking. Worldometers reporting about 489,571 deaths on February 11, 2021. John Hopkins reports 471,567 total US COVID deaths as of February 10, 2021, 475k on Feb 11 and 478k as of Feb 12. John Hopkins …

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US Passing 500,000 Cumulative Covid Deaths in One Week and Maybe 1 Million This Summer

The US currently records 474,915 deaths from COVID and the seven day average or daily deaths is over 3000 per day. This will likely update to about 476,000 deaths by the end of the day Feb 7, 2021. UPDATE – adjusted for variance between IHME and Worldometers reporting of death totals on Jan 29. Feb …

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Vaccine Effectiveness Drops from 90% to 50% Versus South Africa Variant

Clinical trial data on two COVID-19 vaccines are less protective versus the South Africa coronavirus variant. Novavax reported midstage trial results on Thursday that showed its vaccine was 50% effective overall at preventing COVID-19 among people in South Africa. United Kingdom vaccine results were up to 89.3% effective at preventing COVID-19. Pfizer and Moderna vaccines …

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Moderna Vaccine Works Against New Strains But May Need New Third Booster

The two-dose regimen of the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine at the 100 µg dose is expected to be protective against emerging strains detected to date. Moderna will test an additional booster dose of its COVID-19 Vaccine (mRNA-1273) to study the ability to further increase neutralizing titers against emerging strains beyond the existing primary vaccination series. Moderna …

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New COVID Variants Can Reinfect Could Mean Years Fighting Mutated Pandemic

COVID variants could get around the human immune response. “Immune escape” could mean more people who have had COVID-19 could get reinfection and current vaccines may need an update. UK Variant B.1.1.7 is spreading faster in the UK and other countries but a South Africa 501Y.V2 variant is also worrying experts. The South Africa mutations …

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COVID Reduced US Life Expectancy By Over One Year and Latinos by Three Years

In Mid-October, 2020 (when the US had 215000 COVID deaths), COVID had caused a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. There was a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines …

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CDC COVID-19 Vaccination Priority Plan Could Cause 100,000 Avoidable Deaths

On December 1, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) gave its recommended COVID-19 Vaccination Priority plan and it is still wrong. The CDC is ignoring its own science on the most at risk groups. On December 1, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that health care personnel and long-term care facility residents …

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Protect the Old – About 10% of Vaccination Effort Can Prevent 90% of the Deaths

We have to protect the old people first to prevent the most COVID-19 deaths. COVID-19 is most deadly to older people, so vaccinating the roughly 7-10% of people who are over 70 would prevent over 75% of COVID deaths. These estimates are from Israel, but striking: vaccinate the 0.5% of people over 90, and total …

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Is a Two to Three Week Delay on COVID Vaccine Approval Worth It?

The UK has already approved the Pfizer COVID vaccine. This is ahead of the EU and the USA. Everyone knows the Pfizer COVID vaccine will be approved in each of the jurisdictions. However, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has a meeting planned to discuss Pfizer’s data in depth on 10 December. Dr Scott …

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