2035 could be the start of global recessions and depressions that virtually never end. China still has 10-15 years where its economy will not be truly horrible. This is also the time, when European economies also get terrible and the US exists its millennial echo-boom. The only hope will be if AI, robotics and self-driving cars creates an offsetting economic boom or if radical antiaging technology is developed to restore vitality and fertility to humanity.
China will be continuing to leverage the last effects of urbanization. China is at about 65% urban and China can go to 80% urban. China’s overall population has started to shrink. China’s fertility rate has been about 1.18 for the past three years. Previous, UN population forecasts where China loses the population of Japan by 2050 (dropping from 1.42 billion to 1.3 billion) assumed that China would have a fertility rate of 1.6. 35% fewer babies per year means 9 million babies per year instead of 13 million. The drop accelerates as 2 million fewer girls do not exist to have babies in the 2040s. There is a chance that the fertility rates drops to the 0.8 level of South Korea.
Urbanization can continue to offset the declining overall population until around 2035. The population decline then gets even worse and the urbanization process will be completed.
China will be aging at the same time. China will be going from an average age of 38 now to over 50 years in 2050. The aging population will be a 20-40% hit on GDP.
The GDP hits by 2035 will already be at the level that Japan has experienced from 2008 to 2023. Japan has lost 6 million people from its peak. Economic growth from technology and other factors have barely offset the economic impacts of demographic decline.
The projections for China are worse than current UN estimates. China in 2050 will likely look more like current China in 2070 projections.
China could keep to 2-3% GDP growth per year and contribute 0.3 to 0.5% to overall world GDP from now to 2035. After 2035, China could have persistent -2 to -3% GDP growth. This would be a 0.3 to 0.5% drag on the overall world GDP.
China entering sharp decline from 2035-2050 will then be a negative drag on overall world GDP growth. This will be at about the same time that there will growing negative effects from Japan’s decline, German decline, Korea, Italy and Spain decline.
There will be less positive contribution from India and other countries.
In 2035-2040, the US and Canada will be ending the surge in economic growth from the echo boomers (Millenials).
All developed countries will have median ages from up from 40 to about 50. This will be a negative 1% per year.
The lower demand in China, Europe and Japan will cause a property bust. This could put the banks in China, Europe and Japan at risk.
Debt problems and financial systems will be get worse and there will be less growth and earnings to offset.
China, Japan and Europe have almost half of the globally important banks.
The lower number of girls in 2050 means that the decline and economics get far, far worse from 2050 to 2100 and beyond.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Brian is wrong about China as usual. They do NOT have 10-15. Their population is ALREADY Collapsing already. It was too late for China 18 years ago. But as usual the CCP lied about the real numbers in regards to China.
Literally every nation with declining populations has tried things like this. It doesn’t work. It never works. I’m sure Chinese measures will be far more draconian, but that may produce civil unrest rather than more children.
China starting some actions to boost fertility rate including reduce cost to raise kids, give money to sperm donors. The measures will only bolder and bolder until they get their goal. I believe China fertility rate will be stabilized in 2025, bounce back in 2030 and at replacement level in 2040.
2 opposite narratives have arisen lately :
1. AI, robotics, automation, etc are going to take all the jobs. We are going to have a surplus of people, what are they all going to do? Maybe UBI?
2. Low fertility / Population collapse is going to lead to economic depression and possible the collapse of civilization as we know it.
Seems like the 2 complement each other and maybe we will muddle through.
Im just curious when politics about this would kick in, dont you think this is a factor too. My grandfathers father was told by the priests to have lots of children, they gave notice. Maybe politics can turn the tide, as one child policy did for China. What was brutal.
But but Science Fiction novels always talk about how overpopulated the future will be. I am positively bamboozled.
Plenty of dystopian SF novels with decimated humanity or humanity near extinction. Children of Men. Handmaid’s tale. Logan’s Run etc…
Logan’s run is post apocalyptic nuclear war. Lots of kids as they are lab grown by the state.
Handmaids tale is just garbage.
Children of men, yes.
The dome city state in Logan’s run killed everyone once they reached age 30.
Brian, another factor that no one is talking about is that I read every year more than 30 thousand women leave China to marry foreign men in Western Countries. That amounts of something like 2.5% of women born in China every year (I calculated that based on 2020 birthdates so it is even higher now). That is 300-500k every decade! What country can survive if it loses that many women every decade.
That is 0.6% (30k out of 5 million). However, China’s net migration is -350k per year. So if it was men and women equally, then it would be -175k each year.So it is about 3.5%. 1.75 million per decade. If those are women below or at fertility age.