Nextbigfuture makes public predictions at Metaculus. I am now ranked 58th (tied for 58th). There are several thousand participants making forecasts at Metaculus. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Metaculus focuses on predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. They also have geopolitical …
Ukrainian forces advanced 50km (30 miles) deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8 and took control of Balakliya city. In the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8. Ukraine has already recaptured 1000 square kilometers of territory. Ukrainian forces will …
In 2006, I publicly predicted that solar energy would be the cheapest form of energy by 2020. Among 150 predictions I made in 2006 on the site nanotech-now were Solar power becomes cheapest form of enery by 2015-2020 Massive solar energy deployments, over one third of the new energy generators by 2015-2025 IRENA’s report, Renewable …
In 2006, I made a list of 152 public future predictions. I made a prediction that there would be 20 million millionaires by 2018-2020. This was triple the number of millionaires in the world in 2004. The 2004 numbers were and what were available and known in 2006. A new study from Capgemini published in …
Ukraine will soon cutoff Russian troops in Kherson on the Northern side of the Dnipro River from resupply. They are destroying bridges and have already rendered certain bridges mostly unusable. This will enable Ukraine’s larger number of troops to outnumber and overwhelm Russian troops without resupply. This retaking of significant territory currently held by Russian …
We know what will happen in the next two years with electric cars because we know what electric car factories and battery factories have already been built. Electric Car Factories take time to build and scale production. Battery factories and battery supplies take time to establish. This is the same as in 1943 in WW2. …
Which Car Companies Goes Bankrupt or Restructures First? They will be losing 50-90% of their legacy auto business from 2024-2028. When and how fast will depend upon their region and types of cars they make. Large trucks and SUVs will take 2-5 years longer to replace. China and Europe and transition about 2-4 years faster …
Elon Musk believes 2029 is the year we can achieve both AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and humans on Mars. Clearly, Elon believes Teslabot will be used to achieve realworld AGI and realworld AI. He also believes that SpaceX Super Heavy Starship will be used to place humans on Mars. 2029 feels like a pivotal year. …
Brian Wang explores what SpaceX will be achieving this decade. Brian is a SpaceX investor and is a member of angel investment groups including Space Angels and Allocations which each make many space investments. The keys to the SpaceX decade will be the Super Heavy Starship and rapid reuse of it. The rapid reuse will …
Tesla is preparing to split its stock again. $TSLA hasn’t announced a stock split yet but by seeking approval to increase the authorized shares at the upcoming AGM, the Board is signaling its intent. After $TSLA announced its 5:1 split on Aug 11, 2020, TSLA stock increased 81% in 20 days, from $275 to $498 …
Worldometers is reporting cumulative US COVID deaths at 1,000,355 as of today for yesterdays data. The CDC reports that as of Monday, March 21 the US has had a total of 971,422 and will add the Tuesday number today to get to about 972,400. The CDC data will report the US passing 1 million cumulative …